ScienceWeek

SCIENCE POLICY: ENERGY RESOURCES AND GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT

The following points are made by J. Chow et al (Science 2003 302:1528):

1) Energy is the lifeblood of technological and economic development. The energy choices made by the US and the rest of the world have ramifications for economic growth; the local, national, and global environment; and even the shape of international political alliances and national defense commitments. Countries of varying levels of wealth also face different energy challenges (1).

2) Although estimates vary, the world's proved, economically recoverable fossil fuel reserves include almost 1 trillion metric tons of coal, more than 1 trillion barrels of petroleum, and over 150 trillion cubic meters of natural gas (2). In addition to fossil fuels, mineral resources important to energy generation include over 3 million metric tons of uranium reserves (3). To put this into context, consider that the world's annual 2000 consumption of coal was about 5 billion metric tons or 0.5% of reserves. Natural gas consumption was 1.6% of reserves, whereas oil was almost 3% of reserves, and nuclear electricity generation consumed the equivalent of 2% of uranium reserves (4).

3) Reported recoverable reserves have tended to increase over time, keeping pace with consumption, and now are at or near all-time highs. In relation to current consumption, there remain vast reserves that are adequate for continued worldwide economic development, not even accounting for reserves that will become economically recoverable through continuing discovery and technological advance (5). Thus, it seems that the world is not running out of mineral fuels.

4) Large fossil fuel reserves are concentrated in a small number of countries, with half of the low-income countries and more than a third of the middle-income countries having no fossil fuel reserves whatsoever. If energy reserves were necessary for economic development, several of the world's poorest nations would be disadvantaged. However, many energy-bereft countries (such as Japan) have become highly developed through sufficient access to international energy markets. Conversely, Nigeria possesses substantial reserves but remains one of the poorest countries, its energy production activities mired in corruption. Thus, simply possessing large fossil energy reserves is of questionable value to a country's development if there is no well-functioning and adequately equitable socioeconomic system enabling it to extract and deploy those energy resources for their full social benefit.

5) In summary: In order to address the economic and environmental consequences of our global energy system, the authors consider the availability and consumption of energy resources. Problems arise from our dependence on combustible fuels, the environmental risks associated with their extraction, and the environmental damage caused by their emissions. Yet no primary energy source, be it renewable or nonrenewable, is free of environmental or economic limitations. As developed and developing economies continue to grow, conversion to and adoption of environmentally benign energy technology will depend on political and economic realities.

References (abridged):

1. The authors analyzed year 2000 data from 211 countries, using the World Bank's method of distinguishing between low-, middle-, and high-income countries according to GNI/pop. The authors refer to low- and middle-income countries jointly as "developing countries", and high-income countries are considered "industrialized or developed countries". Of the countries considered in this analysis, approximately 75% fall into the former category. Countries are low-income if GNI/pop is less than US $750 (69 countries, including the Congo, India, and Indonesia); middle-income if GNI/pop is between US $750 and $9250 (85 countries, including Argentina, Mexico, and Turkey); or high-income if GNI/pop is greater than US $9250 (57 countries, including the United States, Japan, and Western Europe). The authors have also identified those countries comprising the poorest 10% (such as Cambodia, Chad, and Tajikistan) and the richest 10% (such as the United States, Singapore, and the United Kingdom). The developing-country group is heterogeneous in resource endowments and development conditions, whereas classification as a developed country does not imply a preferred or final stage of development. GNI/pop is a convenient criterion among many metrics for levels of development and does not necessarily reflect development status. GNI, GDP, and population data for 2000 are drawn from the World Development Indicators 2002, published by the World Bank. Population, GNI/pop. 2. These numbers are based on year 2001 data. Reserves include only resources that are identified as economically and technically recoverable with current technologies and prices. Other resources with foreseeable or unknown potential for recovery exist but are not included in this report, because estimates are often highly speculative and unreliable, particularly estimates of resources in developing countries. Reserve estimates tend to expand overall with time, as technology increases the number of economically recoverable reserves.

3. These numbers are based on year 2001 data. This estimate includes reasonably assured resources (RARs) identified by the IAEA and does not include other potential resources and secondary supplies from reprocessed uranium, reenriched uranium, and highly enriched uranium from the dismantlement of nuclear weapons.

4. However, 42% of uranium used for nuclear electricity generation is currently supplied by secondary sources, so the actual consumption of uranium reserves is less than this estimate suggests.

5. It should be noted that the three major fossil fuels are not perfect substitutes for each other, particularly in the short term. Petroleum derivatives offer versatility in use and ease of transport that make them ideal for the transportation sector. Coal is the most abundant fossil fuel but generates the most airborne pollutants. Hence, coal-fired electricity generation plants are gradually giving way to gas-fired plants. Natural gas is the cleanest-burning and most energy-efficient fossil fuel, but supply is currently hindered by insufficient extraction and transport infrastructure, such as regasification and storage facilities for importing liquefied natural gas from overseas.

Science http://www.sciencemag.org

ScienceWeek http://www.scienceweek.com