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2. WORLD HUNGER

FEEDING THE WORLD IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

The following points are made by G. Conway and G. Toenniessen (Nature 1999 402:C55):

1) The Green Revolution was one of the great technological success stories of the second half of the twentieth century. Because of the introduction of scientifically bred, higher-yielding varieties of rice, wheat and maize beginning in the 1960s, overall food production in the developing countries kept pace with population growth, with both more than doubling. The benefits of the Green Revolution reached many of the world's poorest people. Forty years ago there were a billion people in developing countries who did not get enough to eat, equivalent to 50 per cent of the population of these countries. If this proportion had remained unchanged, the hungry would now number over two billion — more than double the current estimate of around 800 million, or around 20 per cent of the present population of the developing world. Since the 1970s, world food prices have declined in real terms by over 70 per cent. Those who benefit most are the poor, who spend the highest proportion of their family income on food.

2) The Green Revolution brought benefits too for the industrialized world. The high-yielding varieties of staple crop plants bred by the international agricultural research centers of the CGIAR (the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research) have been incorporated into the modern varieties grown in the US and Europe. The additional wheat and rice produced in the US alone from these improved varieties is estimated to have been worth over $3.4 billion from 1970 to 1993 (1).

3) Yet today, despite these demonstrable achievements, over 800 million people consume less than 2,000 calories a day, live a life of permanent or intermittent hunger and are chronically undernourished(2). Most of the hungry are the women and young children of extremely poor families in developing countries. More than 180 million children under five years of age are severely underweight: that is, they are more than two standard deviations below the standard weight for their age. Seventeen million children under five die each year and malnourishment contributes to at least a third of these deaths.

4) As well as gross undernourishment, lack of protein, vitamins, minerals and other micronutrients in the diet is also widespread(3). About 100 million children under five suffer from vitamin A deficiency, which can lead to eye damage. Half a million children become partly or totally blind each year, and many subsequently die. Recent research has shown that lack of vitamin A has an even more pervasive effect, weakening the protective barriers to infection put up by the skin, the mucous membranes and the immune system4. Iron deficiency is also common, leading to about 400 million women of childbearing age (15–49 years) being afflicted by anemia. As a result they tend to produce stillborn or underweight children and are more likely to die in childbirth. Anemia has been identified as a contributing factor in over 20 per cent of all maternal deaths after childbirth in Asia and Africa. 7 5) If nothing new is done, the number of the poor and hungry will grow. The populations of most developing countries are increasing rapidly and by the year 2020 there will be an additional 1.5 billion mouths to feed, mostly in the developing world. What is the likelihood that they will be fed?

6) In summary: The gains in food production provided by the Green Revolution have reached their ceiling while world population continues to rise. To ensure that the world's poorest people do not still go hungry in the twenty-first century, advances in plant biotechnology must be deployed for their benefit by a strong public-sector agricultural research effort.(4,5)

References (abridged):

1. Pardey, P. G., Alston, J. M., Christian, J. E. & Fan, S. Summary of a Productive Partnership: The Benefits from U.S. Participation in the CGIAR (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC, 1996).

2. Conway, G.R. The Doubly Green Revolution: Food for All in the 21st Century (Penguin Books, London/Cornell University Press, Ithaca NY, 1999).

3. UNICEF. The State of the World's Children 1998 (Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford/New York, 1998).

4. Somer, A. & West, K.P. Vitamin A Deficiency: Health, Survival and Vision (Oxford Univ. Press, New York and Oxford, 1966).

5. Mann, C.C. Science 283, 310-314 (1999)

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FEEDING THE FUTURE

The following points are made by W. Bender W and M. Smith (Popul Today. 1997 25:4):

1) The authors discuss the unequal distribution of food within and among countries of the world, poverty as the main cause of hunger, the patterns of population growth, and future prospects.

2) The evidence reveals the potential for reaching limits of agricultural expansion. Widespread environmental destruction suggests that agricultural lands are declining. Current production patterns may not be sustainable. "Population growth is the single largest determinant of future needs." Farmers of the world's poorest regions must produce food to meet the needs of a doubled population by 2050.

3) The 1996 World Food Summit urged that agricultural policies emphasize environmentally sustainable production methods and a wider variety of crops that would include sorghum and millet. In the early 1990s, 40% of Africa's population was food-energy deficient. Africa has some of the highest population growth rates. Fertility stands at about 6 children/woman. Even with reduced fertility, the African population is expected to double to 22% of world population by 2050.

4) The East Asian population, which is dominated by China, is expected to reach 2.2 billion by 2050. South Asia includes some of the poorest and most densely populated countries; its population is expected to reach 2.2-3.3 billion by 2050.

5) 43% of the malnourished population during 1990-92 lived in sub-Saharan Africa, 22% lived in South Asia, 16% lived in East and Southeast Asia, 15% lived in Latin America and the Caribbean, and 12% lived in the Near East and North Africa. The proportions of underweight children included 58% in South Asia, 30% in sub-Saharan Africa, 25% in the Near East and North Africa, 24% in East and Southeast Asia, and 12% in Latin America and the Caribbean.

6) If everyone adopted a vegetarian diet and no food were wasted, there would be enough food to feed 10 billion people. Malnourishment has the harshest effects on children, rural populations, the growing urban poor, and victims of natural disasters.

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AFRICA: ADDRESSING GROWING THREATS TO FOOD SECURITY

The following points are made by M. Rukuni (J Nutr. 2002 132:3443S):

1) Africa remains the only region in the world where the number of hungry people will still be on the increase in 2020, and the number of malnourished children will have increased correspondingly.

2) The author reviews the general public policy trends across Africa in terms of macroeconomic policy reforms and political transitions. These welcome trends have to still produce stable nations and economies. Although economic development is the long-term solution to Africa's challenge on hunger and poverty, this will take time. And it follows therefore that African nations have to pursue policies and strategies that promote long-term growth while at the same time offering short-term safety nets for the poorest of the poor.

3) The growth and development strategy will have at its core the need to increase significantly the levels of public-sector investment in agriculture and rural development and to give top priority to the commercialization of smallholder agriculture so as to increase productivity and competitiveness. But food security at the household level is ultimately a balance between availability and access, and in this regard governments need complementary food security policies that increase the probability of food access by the vulnerable groups.

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DEGRADATION OF LAND REACHING CRITICAL GLOBAL PROPORTIONS

The following points are made by A. Smith (Popline. 1992 14:3):

1) As populations in the poorest parts of the world increase, the ratio of land/person continues to decrease. There are approximately 32 billion acres of land, excluding Antarctica, on the planet. That equals only 5.98 acres/person; however, not all this land is suitable for habitation or food production. 1.2 acres is too steep, 1.3 acres is to arid, and 1 acre is too cold.

2) Also, the population of the world is not spread out evenly across the land; thus, in many areas the population density is so high that the demands placed upon the land are greater than its capacity to produce.

3) The Green Revolution that lasted from 1950 through the mid 1980s did increase the total amount of yield/acre. Unfortunately the price for such productivity was a degradation of the land. Chemical inputs have contaminated ground water and sterilized the soil, irrigation has caused salinization and water logging (which is a form of decertification), and new tillage practices have eroded the top soil. Grazing cattle have caused enormous amounts of soil erosion and deforestation has removed 911 million acres of tropical forest alone to make room for a growing population.

4) Wood is the single most important fuel source for the people of the developing world; yet, as it becomes scarce from deforestation, animal manures and crop residues have been substituted, which further the diminishes the availability of fertile land.

5) The authors suggest it must be understood that family planning saves lives, reduces suffering, and slows the damage to the environment. The authors suggest family planning is the single best way to make an impact in the attempt to end poverty and hunger.

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THE BELLAGIO DECLARATION: OVERCOMING HUNGER IN THE 1990'S

The following points are made by F. Alloo et al (Dev Dialogue. 1989 2:177):

1) In November 1989, 23 leading hunger experts met in Bellagio, Italy, and issued a document called the "Bellagio Declaration: Overcoming Hunger in the 1990s". The report lists 4 achievable goals: eliminate famine deaths; end hunger in half of the world's poorest households; reduce by half malnutrition of mothers and small children; and eradicate iodine and vitamin A deficiencies.

2) Famine deaths can be eliminated by setting up early-warning systems and longer-term relief objectives. The only remaining obstacle is how to prevent warring nations from blocking food deliveries and destroying food.

3) Hunger can be eliminated in half the world's poor households by giving the poor access to resources and credit, rehabilitating degraded ecosystems, using sustainable farming, and using existing markets to distribute food equitably.

4) Malnutrition can be halved by sustained breastfeeding, and supplementation of food and micronutrients.

5) Iodine and vitamin A deficiencies can be eliminated by giving iodized oil injections, vitamin A capsules, and iodized salt.

6) Ways of dealing with obstacles such as population, deforestation, soil and water shortages, pollution, global warming, and capital deficits in the South are discussed. The authors suggest there is hope that these goals can be attained because of the outbreak of peace and democracy, freeing up substantial portions of the 1 trillion US dollars spent on defense; abatement of fear of worldwide economic collapse; and evolution of a worldwide logistic system to provide emergency food aid.

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THE STATE OF WORLD POPULATION AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE US

The following points are made by W. Fornos (JOICFP News 1987 157:4):

1) Before the end of the century, annual world population growth is expected to exceed 90 million. Among the consequences of this rapid population growth -- most of which will take place in developing countries -- are environmental degradation, urban deterioration, unemployment, hunger, resource depletion, and economic stagnation. Despite this alarming situation, the US Government has reduced appropriations for international population aid from US$290 million in 1985 to $200 million in 1988. In addition, the US has stopped funding the 2 organizations that have been most effective in providing family planning assistance to developing countries: the United Nations Fund for Population Activities and the International Planned Parenthood Federation.

2) The US has adapted a policy that asserts that population is a neutral factor in development and promotes capitalism as a means of lowering fertility. However, experience in developing countries such as Thailand, China, and the Philippines that have undergone dramatic fertility declines attests that family planning efforts can result in economic growth. Over 80% of developing countries have established population control policies, yet they will require substantial financial and technical aid from industrialized nations.

3) The authors suggests it is ironic that the US has turned away from a commitment to helping poor countries to voluntarily reduce their high fertility rates at a time when such countries have accepted the necessity of such a goal. It is further ironic that the US expresses concern about the threat of revolution in areas such as Central America, yet fails to comprehend the social unrest and threats to global stability that will emerge as a result of continued population growth. At least a doubling --preferably a tripling -- of US population assistance is needed.

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WORLD FOOD AND AGRICULTURE: OUTLOOK FOR THE MEDIUM AND LONGER TERM

The following points are made by Nikos Alexandratos (Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 1999 96:5908):

1) The world has been making progress in improving food security, as measured by the per person availability of food for direct human consumption. However, progress has been very uneven, and many developing countries have failed to participate in such progress. In some countries, the food security situation is today worse than 20 years ago.

2) The persistence of food insecurity does not reflect so much a lack of capacity of the world as a whole to increase food production to whatever level would be required for everyone to have consumption levels assuring satisfactory nutrition. The world already produces sufficient food. The undernourished and the food-insecure persons are in these conditions because they are poor in terms of income with which to purchase food or in terms of access to agricultural resources, education, technology, infrastructure, credit, etc., to produce their own food.

3) Economic development failures account for the persistence of poverty and food insecurity. In the majority of countries with severe food-security problems, the greatest part of the poor and food-insecure population depend greatly on local agriculture for a living. In such cases, development failures are often tantamount to failures of agricultural development. Development of agriculture is seen as the first crucial step toward broader development, reduction of poverty and food insecurity, and eventually freedom from excessive economic dependence on poor agricultural resources.

4) Projections indicate that progress would continue, but at a pace and pattern that would be insufficient for the incidence of under-nutrition to be reduced significantly in the medium-term future. As in the past, world agricultural production is likely to keep up with, and perhaps tend to exceed, the growth of the effective demand for food. The problem will continue to be one of persistence of poverty, leading to growth of the effective demand for food on the part of the poor that would fall short of that required for them to attain levels of consumption compatible with freedom from under-nutrition.(1-5)

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